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Prognosis of oesophageal cancer

Last edited May 27, 2019. Last reviewed Jun 5, 2024

The prognosis for oesophageal carcinoma is dependent on the site of the tumour. Approximate 5-year survival figures are:

upper third tumours have a 20% 5-year survival
middle third tumours have a 6% 5-year survival
lower third tumours have a 15% 5-year survival

The prognosis also depends on:

tumour size and site
depth of invasion
node metastases
widespread metastases
tumour grade
lymphocytic response
general health of the patient

Population based cohort studies have reported a minor improvement of the overall prognosis in oesophageal cancer patients during the past 20 years (1)

in the USA overall 5-year survival rate for patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma is slightly higher (17%) than in squamous cell carcinoma (2)
in England and Wales
- more than a tenth (12%) of people diagnosed with oesophageal cancer in England and Wales survive their disease for ten years or more (2010-11)
- 3 in 20 (15%) of people diagnosed with oesophageal cancer in England and Wales survive their disease for five years or more (2010-11)
- more than 4 in 10 (42%) people diagnosed with oesophageal cancer in England and Wales survive their disease for one year or more (2010-11)
- oesophageal cancer survival is higher in men than women at one-year, but similar at five- and ten-years
  - oesophageal cancer survival falls only slightly beyond five years after diagnosis, which means most patients can be considered cured after five years
    - 12% of men and 13% of women are predicted to survive their disease for ten years or more, as shown by age-standardised net survival for patients diagnosed with oesophageal cancer during 2010-2011 in England and Wales
    - out of 20 common cancers in England and Wales, ten-year survival for oesophageal cancer ranks 3rd lowest overall.
- almost a fifth of men and more than a quarter of women in England diagnosed with oesophageal cancer aged 50-59 survive their disease for five years or more, compared with around 5 in 100 people diagnosed aged 80 and over (2009-2013). Oesophageal cancer survival is improving and has tripled in the last 40 years in the UK
- in the 1970s, less than 5 in 100 people diagnosed with oesophageal cancer survived their disease beyond ten years, now it's more than a tenth

Reference:

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