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Predictive value of Apgar score

Authoring team

There is evidence concerning the association of low Apgar scores at five minutes with both increased neonatal mortality and increased risk of cerebral palsy.

A retrospective cohort analysis of 151,891 live-born singleton infants without malformations who were delivered at 26 weeks of gestation or later at an inner-city public hospital between January 1988 and December 1998 was undertaken (1)

  • paired Apgar scores and umbilical-artery blood pH values were determined for 145,627 infants to assess which test best predicted neonatal death during the first 28 days after birth
  • for 13,399 infants born before term (at 26 to 36 weeks of gestation), the neonatal mortality rate was:
    • 315 per 1000 for infants with five-minute Apgar scores of 0 to 3, as compared with 5 per 1000 for infants with five-minute Apgar scores of 7 to 10
  • for 132,228 infants born at term (37 weeks of gestation or later), the mortality rate was:
    • 244 per 1000 for infants with five-minute Apgar scores of 0 to 3, as compared with 0.2 per 1000 for infants with five-minute Apgar scores of 7 to 10
  • the risk of neonatal death in term infants with five-minute Apgar scores of 0 to 3 (relative risk, 1460; 95 percent confidence interval, 835 to 2555) was eight times the risk in term infants with umbilical-artery blood pH values of 7.0 or less (180; 95 percent confidence interval, 97 to 334)

Another large population-based cohort study investigated the association between low Apgar score and bothe neonatal death and cerebral palsy (2):

  • involved all 235,165 children born between 1983 and 1987 in Norway with a birth weight of at least 2500 g and no registered birth defects were followed up from birth to age 8 to 12 years by linkage of 3 national registries
  • outcomes were death and cerebral palsy (CP)
  • study results revealed:
    • five-minute Apgar scores of 0 to 3 were recorded for 0.1%, and scores of 4 to 6 were recorded for 0.6% of the children
    • compared with children who had 5-minute Apgar scores of 7 to 10, children who had scores of 0 to 3 had a 386-fold increased risk for neonatal death (95% CI: 270-552) and an 81-fold (48-138) increased risk for CP
    • if Apgar scores at both 1 and 5 minutes were 0 to 3, the risks for neonatal death and CP were increased 642-fold (442-934) and 145-fold (85-248), respectively, compared with scores of 7 to 10
    • the study authors concluded that the strong association of low Apgar scores with death and CP in this population with a low occurrence of low scores shows that the Apgar score remains important for the early identification of infants at increased risk for serious and fatal conditions

A systematic review and analysis of a hospital based cohort of Apgar scores of zero at 10 minutes has been undertaken (3):

  • 88 infants (94%) either died or were handicapped severely; 2 infants (2%) were handicapped moderately, and 1 infant (1%) was handicapped mildly
  • for 3 infants (3%), the long-term outcome could not be determined
  • the study authors concluded that the outcome of infants with an Apgar score of zero at 10 minutes is almost universally poor

Reference:


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