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Predictors of progression

Last reviewed dd mmm yyyy. Last edited dd mmm yyyy

Authoring team

Prospective studies on cohorts of homosexual men and haemophiliacs in developed countries have revealed the following predictors of progression to AIDS.

  • CD4+ve counts
    • CD4+ >500 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio >0.63 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 1:12
    • CD4+ < 250 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio < 0.3 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 2:3
  • oral thrush double the chance of progression
  • serum HIV p24 antigen also increases the chance of developing AIDS

The rate of progression is similar in both sexes and pregnancy does not increase the rate of progression.

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